Data-Driven Trading and Investment Course
Welcome to a comprehensive journey into data-driven trading. This course bridges the gap between market intuition and systematic analysis.
Discover how to harness data for more confident, consistent trading and investment decisions across various markets.

by Cyprian Onderi

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Buy Sell Signals

Welcome & Course Goals
Master Data-Driven Approach
Learn to make trading decisions based on verifiable data rather than emotions.
Develop Systematic Strategies
Build reproducible trading systems that can be tested and improved.
Implement Risk Management
Protect your capital with proper position sizing and risk controls.
Create Effective Trade Logging
Track and analyse your performance to continuously improve.
Why Data-Driven Trading?
Emotion-Based Trading
  • Decisions based on feelings
  • Inconsistent results
  • Difficulty identifying issues
  • Prone to psychological biases
Data-Driven Trading
  • Decisions based on evidence
  • Reproducible processes
  • Clear performance metrics
  • Reduced emotional interference
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The Shift: From Intuition to Information
Intuition
Relying on gut feelings and market "sense"
Analysis
Using technical and fundamental data points
System
Building repeatable trading processes
Automation
Implementing rule-based execution
Who This Course is For
Beginner Traders
Start your trading journey with solid, evidence-based foundations rather than costly trial and error.
Struggling Traders
Transform inconsistent results into reliable performance through systematic approaches.
Technical Enthusiasts
Leverage your analytical skills to create powerful trading strategies and systems.
Investors Seeking Edge
Enhance your investment decisions with data-driven insights and methodologies.
Tools You'll Need
Charting Platform
TradingView, MT4/MT5, or similar for technical analysis
Spreadsheet Software
Excel or Google Sheets for tracking and analysis
Trading Journal
Digital or physical system for recording trades
Position Size Calculator
Tool for determining appropriate trade sizes
Data Sources: Where Insight Begins
Price Data
Historical and real-time market prices
News
Market-moving events and announcements
Economic Calendar
Scheduled economic data releases
Volume & Order Flow
Transaction volume and market depth
Sentiment Indicators
Market positioning and trader sentiment
Understanding Markets: Forex & Gold
The Power of Systematic Thinking

Consistent Results
Achieving reliable trading performance
Reproducible Process
Following the same steps every time
Clear Rules
Specific conditions for trading actions
Evidence Base
Decisions founded on historical data
Defining Your Trading Goals

Financial Objectives
Specific return targets and income goals
Time Commitment
Hours per day/week available for trading
Risk Tolerance
Comfort level with drawdowns and volatility
Knowledge Level
Current expertise and learning objectives
Trading vs. Investing: What's the Difference?
Trading
  • Shorter timeframes
  • More frequent transactions
  • Technical analysis focus
  • Seeks market inefficiencies
  • Active management style
Investing
  • Longer timeframes
  • Fewer transactions
  • Fundamental analysis focus
  • Seeks value appreciation
  • More passive approach
Timeframes & Styles
Day Trading
  • Positions held intraday only
  • Uses 1-min to 1-hour charts
  • Requires active screen time
  • Higher frequency of trades
Swing Trading
  • Positions held for days to weeks
  • Uses 4-hour to daily charts
  • Part-time compatible
  • Moderate trade frequency
Position Trading
  • Positions held for weeks to months
  • Uses daily to monthly charts
  • Lower time commitment
  • Fewer trade opportunities
Building Your Personal Trading Mission
Define Your Purpose
Clarify why you're trading and what you hope to achieve beyond financial returns.
Set Clear Objectives
Establish specific, measurable goals with realistic timeframes for achievement.
Outline Your Approach
Specify the markets, timeframes, and methods that align with your goals.
Create Accountability
Develop tracking systems and review processes to monitor your adherence.
What Success Looks Like
Aligning Strategy with Objectives
The Data-Driven Workflow
Research
Gather historical data and identify patterns
Develop
Create and define strategy rules
Test
Backtest and optimize parameters
Deploy
Implement strategy in live markets
Review
Analyze performance and refine approach
What Makes a Good Strategy?
Clear Edge
Identifiable advantage backed by statistical evidence, not just anecdotes or feelings.
Definable Rules
Specific conditions for entry, exit, and position management that can be consistently applied.
Robustness
Works across different market conditions and remains effective with parameter variations.
Risk Control
Built-in mechanisms to limit losses and manage drawdowns during adverse conditions.
Price Action & Market Structure
Trend Identification
Recognizing higher highs/lows (uptrend) or lower highs/lows (downtrend).
Support & Resistance
Key price levels where buying or selling pressure has historically emerged.
Swing Points
Significant highs and lows that mark potential turning points.
Chart Patterns
Recognizable formations that suggest continuation or reversal.
Indicators That Matter
Moving Averages (EMA/SMA)
Identify trends and potential support/resistance levels. EMA responds faster to price changes than SMA.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and change of price movements, identifying overbought/oversold conditions.
MACD
Trend-following momentum indicator showing relationship between two moving averages of price.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis (MTA)

Higher Timeframe
Establish overall trend direction and key levels
Middle Timeframe
Identify trading opportunities within the trend
Lower Timeframe
Fine-tune entry and exit points for better precision
Building a Strategy From Scratch
Identify Market Inefficiency
Find a pattern or behavior you can potentially exploit.
Formulate Hypothesis
Create a testable statement about market behavior.
Define Trading Rules
Create specific entry, exit, and management criteria.
Develop Performance Metrics
Decide how you'll measure strategy success.
Test and Validate
Use historical data to verify your approach.
Backtesting: What, Why, and How
What is Backtesting?
The process of testing a trading strategy against historical data to verify its viability before risking real capital.
Why Backtest?
  • Verify strategy performance
  • Understand drawdowns
  • Identify strategy weaknesses
  • Build confidence in the approach
How to Backtest
  1. Define clear strategy rules
  1. Gather quality historical data
  1. Use software or manual testing
  1. Record all results systematically
Walk-Forward Testing
Divide Data into Segments
Split historical data into consecutive periods for testing and validation.
Optimize on In-Sample Data
Develop and refine strategy on the first segment only.
Test on Out-of-Sample Data
Verify performance on unseen data without further adjustments.
Roll Forward and Repeat
Move testing window forward to validate across different market conditions.
Avoiding Curve-Fitting
Signs of Curve-Fitting
  • Perfect backtest results
  • Overly complex rules
  • Highly specific parameters
  • Poor out-of-sample performance
  • Strategy only works in specific periods
Prevention Methods
  • Keep strategies simple
  • Use out-of-sample testing
  • Apply statistical validation
  • Test across various market conditions
  • Limit parameter optimization
Strategy Metrics to Track
1.75
Profit Factor
Ratio of gross profits to gross losses. Target 1.5+
15%
Max Drawdown
Largest peak-to-trough decline. Keep under 20%
58%
Win Rate
Percentage of winning trades versus total trades
2.1
Risk-Reward Ratio
Average profit on winners vs. average loss on losers
Optimization Without Overfitting
Focus on Key Parameters
Optimize only the most impactful 2-3 variables.
Use Broad Parameter Ranges
Test wide intervals rather than specific values.
Apply Monte Carlo Simulation
Test strategy robustness through randomized scenarios.
Seek Balanced Metrics
Don't optimize for profit alone; consider drawdown and consistency.
Case Study: Data Strategy in Action
Strategy Hypothesis
EUR/USD tends to revert to mean after volatile moves outside Bollinger Bands.
Rule Definition
Enter when price closes outside 2.5 SD band and RSI shows extreme reading.
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Backtest Results
58% win rate, 1.8 profit factor, 12% max drawdown over 5 years.
Optimization
Adjusted RSI thresholds and tested various exit techniques.
Live Performance
Strategy delivered 11% annual return with 14% drawdown, close to backtested results.
Why Risk Management is Everything

Long-Term Survival
Preserving capital to trade another day
Drawdown Protection
Limiting the depth of losing periods
Emotional Control
Reducing stress during inevitable losses
Performance Consistency
Smoothing the equity curve over time
Defining Your Risk Tolerance
Position Sizing Techniques
Fixed Percentage
Risk a set percentage of account equity on each trade (e.g., 1-2%).
  • Simple to calculate
  • Adjusts naturally as account grows/shrinks
Volatility-Based
Adjust position size based on market volatility (e.g., ATR).
  • Smaller positions in volatile markets
  • Larger positions in calm periods
Kelly Criterion
Mathematical formula for optimal position sizing based on edge.
  • Considers win rate and risk-reward ratio
  • Often reduced to "Half Kelly" for safety
Setting Stop Loss & Take Profit
Stop Loss Types
  • Fixed Price: Set at specific level
  • Percentage-Based: Set distance from entry
  • Volatility-Based: Uses ATR multiplier
  • Technical Level: Uses support/resistance
  • Time-Based: Exits after specific duration
Take Profit Approaches
  • Fixed R-Multiple: Set risk-reward ratio
  • Technical Level: Key resistance/support
  • Trailing Stop: Locks in profit as trade moves
  • Partial Exits: Scale out at multiple targets
  • Indicator-Based: Exits on signal
Risk-to-Reward Explained
1:1 Risk-Reward
Requires very high win rate (>65%) to be profitable long-term. Generally not recommended.
1:2 Risk-Reward
A balanced approach requiring 40% win rate. Good for most trading styles.
1:3+ Risk-Reward
Allows for lower win rates (<33%). Ideal for trend following strategies.
Managing Losing Streaks
Identify
Recognize when you're in a drawdown period.
Analyze
Determine if losses are random or systematic.
Reduce
Scale down position size to preserve capital.
Reset
Take a short break if needed to regain perspective.
Resume
Return to normal trading with renewed discipline.
Managing Winning Streaks
Maintain Discipline
Stick to your trading plan despite feeling invincible.
Document Success
Record what's working well to replicate in future.
Bank Profits
Consider withdrawing some gains to secure your success.
Watch for Overconfidence
Be alert to risk-seeking behavior that may develop.
Strategy Types: Trend, Range, Breakout
Day Trading Strategy Example (Forex)
Market Selection
EUR/USD during London-NY overlap (14:00-17:00 GMT) for maximum liquidity.
Entry Rules
Enter after pullback to 20 EMA when price action confirms trend continuation.
Exit Strategy
Take profit at previous swing high/low or 1:2 RR ratio. Stop loss below recent structure.
Position Sizing
1% risk per trade, adjusted for recent volatility using ATR.
Swing Trading Strategy Example (Gold)
Strategy Fundamentals
  • Timeframe: 4H and Daily
  • Typical duration: 3-7 days
  • Risk per trade: 1.5%
  • Target win rate: 45%
  • Risk-reward: 1:2.5
Entry Criteria
  • Daily trend identified (higher highs/lows)
  • Pullback to 21 EMA on 4H chart
  • Bullish engulfing pattern at support
  • RSI divergence confirming reversal
Risk Management
  • Stop loss below recent swing low
  • Partial take profit at 1:1
  • Move stop to breakeven after 1:1
  • Trail remainder with 2-day low
Mean Reversion Strategy Example
Identify Extreme Deviation
Look for price extended beyond 2.5 standard deviations from mean (Bollinger Bands).
Confirm Reversion Signal
Wait for RSI to show oversold (<30) or overbought (>70) conditions.
Enter on First Reversal Sign
Take position when price action confirms with reversal candlestick pattern.
Exit at Mean or Opposite Band
Take profit when price reaches the middle band (mean) or opposite band.
Momentum Strategy Example
Momentum Identification
  • ADX reading above 25 (strong trend)
  • Price making consecutive directional moves
  • Volume increasing in trend direction
  • MACD histogram expanding
Entry Methodology
  • Enter on breakout of key level
  • Use limit orders on shallow pullbacks
  • Add to position as momentum continues
  • Avoid chasing after extended moves
Risk Management
  • Wider stops to accommodate volatility
  • Trail stop behind swing points
  • Take partial profits at resistance
  • Exit on momentum divergence
Trade Entry Techniques
Market Order Entry
Immediate execution at current price. Best for fast-moving breakouts when speed matters more than precision.
Limit Order Entry
Enter only at specified price or better. Ideal for pullbacks to support/resistance levels in established trends.
Stop Order Entry
Enter only when price breaks above/below trigger level. Perfect for breakout strategies requiring confirmation.
Scaled Entry
Multiple smaller entries at different levels. Reduces timing pressure and improves average entry price.
Exit Rules & Scaling Out
Fixed Target Exit
Predetermined price level based on R-multiple or technical level
Stop Loss Exit
Exit when trade moves against you beyond acceptable threshold
Trailing Stop Exit
Dynamic stop that moves with profitable trade to lock gains
Indicator-Based Exit
Exit when technical indicator signals trend exhaustion
Partial Exit
Taking profit on portion of position while letting remainder run
Combining Indicators for Edge

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Confirmation Signals
Multiple indicators agreeing on direction
Filter System
Using one indicator to qualify another's signals
Diverse Indicator Types
Combining trend, momentum, and volatility measures
Logical Rule Structure
Clear methodology for interpreting multiple inputs
Algorithmic & Rule-Based Systems
Benefits of Automation
  • Eliminates emotional biases
  • Ensures consistent execution
  • Allows simultaneous strategy monitoring
  • Provides detailed performance metrics
  • Operates 24/7 without fatigue
Implementation Levels
  • Fully Manual: Human executes all steps
  • Alert System: Algo signals, human decides
  • Semi-Auto: Human confirms algo entries
  • Fully Automated: Complete hands-off
Required Skills
  • Clear strategy definition
  • Basic programming knowledge
  • System monitoring capability
  • Understanding of API connections
  • Risk management failsafes
Custom Indicators (Pine Script, MQL)
Concept Development
Identify the market inefficiency or pattern you want to detect.
Pseudocode Creation
Outline the logic and conditions before actual coding.
Programming Implementation
Write the indicator in Pine Script (TradingView) or MQL (MetaTrader).
Testing & Refinement
Test on historical data and optimize parameters.
Integration
Incorporate into your trading platform and strategy.
Automation Basics (for Coders)

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Select Development Environment
Choose appropriate language and platform for your needs
Connect to Market Data
Establish reliable API connections for price feeds
Create Decision Engine
Implement your strategy logic with clear rules
Add Risk Management
Build robust safeguards against technical failures
Develop Monitoring Tools
Create dashboards to track performance metrics
Practical Demo Placeholder
Why You Must Track Every Trade
Performance Measurement
Track your actual results against expectations and goals.
Pattern Identification
Discover hidden strengths and weaknesses in your trading.
Strategy Validation
Verify if your approach works as expected in live markets.
Psychological Insights
Recognize emotional patterns that affect decision making.
Anatomy of a Great Trade Journal
Trade Mechanics
  • Entry/exit prices and times
  • Position size and instrument
  • Stop loss and take profit levels
  • R-multiple and P&L result
Technical Analysis
  • Strategy and setup type
  • Chart screenshots before/after
  • Key indicators and readings
  • Market conditions context
Personal Reflection
  • Emotional state during trade
  • Decision quality assessment
  • Mistakes and lessons learned
  • Ideas for improvement
Pre-Trade Checklist
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Strategy Alignment
Does the setup match my proven strategy criteria?
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Risk Assessment
Is the position size appropriate for my account?
3
Technical Confirmation
Do multiple indicators support this trade?
4
Market Environment
Is the market condition suitable for this strategy?
Post-Trade Review Process
Document Results
Record all trade data and save chart screenshots.
Compare to Plan
Assess how closely you followed your trading rules.
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Rate Execution
Score your entry timing, management, and exit decisions.
Extract Lessons
Identify key takeaways and improvement opportunities.
Update Strategy
Refine your approach based on new insights.
Trade Tagging & Filtering
Analyzing Patterns in Performance
Time-Based Analysis
Examine performance by day of week, time of day, or market session.
Strategy Comparison
Compare results across different setup types and instruments.
Position Sizing Impact
Evaluate how sizing decisions affect overall returns.
Equity Curve Analysis
Identify periods of drawdown and strong performance.
Growth Through Self-Review
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Honest Assessment
Objectively evaluate your decisions without emotional bias.
Pattern Recognition
Identify recurring behaviors in both winning and losing trades.
Skill Development
Target specific areas for focused improvement and practice.
Performance Tracking
Document your progress over time to validate growth.
Recap: The Data-Driven Edge

Sustainable Success
Consistent long-term performance over market cycles
Continuous Improvement
Evidence-based refinement of trading approaches
Risk Management
Disciplined capital preservation during drawdowns
Strategic Execution
Systematic implementation of tested trading ideas
Statistical Foundation
Decisions based on quantifiable evidence not emotions
Building Your Trading Plan
Trading Goals
Specific, measurable objectives with realistic timeframes
Market & Instruments
Selected markets and specific instruments you'll trade
Strategy Details
Precise entry, exit, and management rules for each setup
Risk Parameters
Position sizing, max drawdown, and risk per trade limits
Checklist: From Idea to Execution
Strategy Development
Create clear hypothesis and trading rules based on observable market behavior.
Historical Validation
Backtest the strategy across different market conditions to verify edge.
Paper Trading
Practice execution without real capital to refine process and build confidence.
Small Live Testing
Deploy with minimal capital to experience real market psychology.
Full Implementation
Scale to appropriate position sizing with complete tracking and management.
Common Pitfalls to Avoid
Curve-Fitting
Optimizing strategies to perfectly match historical data
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Overtrading
Taking too many trades outside your proven strategy
Emotional Decisions
Letting fear or greed override your trading system
Position Sizing Errors
Taking oversized risks during drawdowns or winning streaks
System Hopping
Abandoning strategies before proper validation period
Poor Documentation
Failing to track trades and learn from outcomes
Continuous Learning Resources
Books & Publications
Technical analysis classics, strategy guides, and market psychology texts.
Online Communities
Forums, Discord groups, and trading networks for idea sharing and feedback.
Courses & Webinars
Structured learning from established traders with proven track records.
Where to Practice (Demo Accounts & Tools)
Next Steps: Going Live

Finalize Trading Plan
Document your complete strategy and risk parameters
Set Up Capital Structure
Allocate appropriate trading funds with reserves
Start Small
Begin with minimal position sizes to build confidence
Review & Adapt
Regularly assess performance and refine approach